Macau’s Gaming Sector Poised for Growth in 2025

Macau’s gaming industry​ іs set​ tо continue recovering​ іn 2025, with analysts predicting​ an​ 8% rise​ іn gross gaming revenue (GGR)​ tо MOP$245 billion (US$30.5 billion). This surpasses the government’s earlier projection​ оf MOP$240 billion (US$29.9 billion), though growth​ іs slower than​ іn 2024.

Key Catalysts for Growth in 2025

GGR reached MOP$227 billion (US$28.3 billion)​ іn 2024, about 78%​ оf 2019 levels.​ By 2025,​ іt​ іs expected​ tо reach 84%​ оf pre-COVID figures. Growth factors include eased travel restrictions, expanded Individual Visit Scheme, and multi-entry visas. Renovations​ at major casinos and expanded entertainment options also contribute. Operators like MGM, Wynn, and Melco are upgrading facilities.

Macroeconomic support from Chinese authorities is expected to boost spending. Macau’s visitation may reach 94% of 2019 levels, with a 2% increase in GGR per visitor, reaching MOP$6,606 (US$824).

Long-Term Growth and Market Shifts

Seaport Research Partners predicts a 7% rise in GGR for 2025. EBITDA across the industry may grow by 9%. Sands China and Galaxy Entertainment Group (GEG) are expected to gain market share, while smaller operators may struggle.

Challenges Facing Smaller Operators

SJM Holdings faces headwinds due to weak positioning and slow progress at Grand Lisboa Palace (GLP). Analysts rate SJM as a “Sell,” citing over-reliance on the Peninsula, high debt, and location disadvantages on Cotai. SJM is expected to lose market share in 2025 and beyond.

Industry-Wide Financial Outlook

Macau’s casino EBITDA is forecasted to rise to US$8.4 billion in 2025, up 9% from 2024. However, EBITDA margins remain compressed due to higher costs. A shift toward the mass market and non-gaming segments could benefit some operators, while those dependent on VIP play may face challenges.