Mets Vs. Mariners: Predictions, Odds, And Top Bets for Sunday Night Baseball (8/11)

As a new week begins, Sunday Night Baseball takes center stage on the West Coast, where the Seattle Mariners will host the New York Mets in a nationally televised game. Both teams are locked in tight divisional races, making each win crucial as the playoffs draw closer. The Mariners are currently tied with the Astros for the lead in the AL West, with a 6.5-game cushion over the third-place Rangers. However, with the AL West likely sending only one team to the playoffs, winning the division is essential for Seattle. In the wild card standings, the Mariners are 3 games behind the Royals for the final spot, with the Red Sox also in the mix.

The Mets, meanwhile, are trailing the NL East-leading Phillies by a significant margin but are just half a game behind the Braves for second place in the division. That position is critical, as Atlanta currently holds the third Wild Card spot, leaving the Mets on the outside looking in if the season ended today. With both teams hovering around a playoff spot, tonight’s matchup promises to be exciting, especially with the starting pitchers on the mound.

Luis Severino will take the mound for the Mets, facing off against Luis Castillo for the Mariners. This is the final game of their only series this season, and Seattle has dominated so far, shutting out New York 6-0 on Friday and 4-0 on Saturday. The Mariners have a strong 36-26 home record and are on a three-game winning streak. Can they continue their hot streak, or will the Mets finally break through and put some runs on the board?

Let’s break down this matchup and find the best betting opportunities!

Sunday Night Baseball: New York Mets Vs. Seattle Mariners

Game Information – Mets vs Mariners

• Venue & Location: T-Mobile Park (Seattle, WA)
• Date: Sunday, August 11th, 2024
• First Pitch: 7:00pm Eastern
• Broadcast: ESPN
  

Mets vs Mariners Starting Pitchers

• New York Mets: Luis Severino (7-5, 4.06 ERA, 1.25 WHIP)
• Seattle Mariners: Luis Castillo (9-11, 3.48 ERA, 1.17 WHIP)

Betting Odds

1.Run Line

• Mets +1.5 (-184)
• Mariners -1.5 (+164)

2.Money Line

• Mets +123
• Mariners -134

3.Total

• Over 7.5 (-115)
• Under 7.5 (-105)

Two Right-Handers Named Luis Set To Pitch

This matchup has a low total, which is understandable given the pitchers involved. Castillo thrives at home, with his ERA dropping to just under 3.00 and his WHIP improving to 1.07. Interestingly, he’s coming off a rough start at home, where he gave up 3 runs on 8 hits in 6 innings against the Tigers in a 4-2 loss, though he did strike out 9 batters. Before that, he shut out the Angels in his previous home start, and I don’t have much confidence in the Mets’ offense right now.

Although the Mets have a .249 overall batting average and hit .265 on the road, they’ve been shut out twice in this series. This is the final game of a long road trip for New York—10 straight games away from home, including a brief stop in St. Louis, and they have a string of home series coming up next. I have a feeling they might mentally check out early.

Severino’s road stats are concerning, and he hasn’t been pitching well lately. He’s lost his last two starts, giving up 10 earned runs on 14 hits over just 8 innings, including 3 home runs. He’s also lost 2 of his last 3 road games, and I’m skeptical that the Mets will provide enough run support in this one. While I don’t expect Seattle to score in double digits, they likely have an easier time against Severino than the Mets will against Castillo.

Seattle has 4 hitters with Elite or Great ratings against Severino, and 5 others with above-average matchups according to batters-box.com (don’t forget the hyphen). Severino relies on a 96 MPH fastball or sinker more than 60% of the time, and 8 Mariners have a Great or Elite matchup against fastballs. The Mariners have controlled this series so far, and I believe they’ll continue that trend tonight on ESPN.

Mets Vs Mariners Prediction: Mariners Win

The Mariners have been playing impressive baseball lately, and despite losing two home games to the Tigers, they still look like a potential playoff team. The offense is clicking, Randy Arozarena has stepped up well in the outfield, and the team will only get stronger when Julio Rodriguez returns in a few weeks. Tonight, I believe Luis Castillo will shut down the Mets and lead the Mariners to complete the sweep.

While it can be tough to rely on the Mariners’ hitters, Severino has been struggling on the road lately and hasn’t been himself. I expect those struggles to continue against a strong fastball-hitting team at home. I’m willing to take the risk, as sometimes it’s worth paying the price. Let’s cheer on the Mariners to make it four straight home wins tonight!